Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption     

Chih-Hsiang Ho 《Mathematical Geology》1992,24(4):347-364

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10^–6/yr, 1.26×10^–5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10⁴ years is (1.0×10^–3, 6.7×10^–3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.  相似文献   

A synthesis of the geologic evolution of Taiwan   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

C.S. Ho 《Tectonophysics》1986,125(1-3)

The island arc of Taiwan is composed of Cenozoic geosynclinal sediments more than 10,000 m thick, lying on a pre-Tertiary metamorphic basement. Pleistocene to Miocene andesitic islands surround the main island and are related mostly to arc magmatism. The Penghu Island Group in the Taiwan Strait is covered with Pleistocene flood basalt. Neogene shallow marine clastic sediments are exposed mainly in the western foothills with Pleistocene andesitic extrusives at the northern tip and the northeastern offshore islands. A thick sequence of Paleogene to Miocene argillitic to slaty metaclastic rocks underlies the western Central Range and forms the immediate sedimentary cover on the pre-Tertiary metamorphic complex to the east, which represents an older Mesozoic arc-trench system. The Coastal Range in eastern Taiwan is a Neogene andesitic magmatic arc, including also a large variety of volcaniclastic and turbiditic sediments. Cenozoic Taiwan is the site of arc-continent collision where the Luzon arc on the Philippine Sea plate overrides the Chinese continental margin on the Eurasian plate. East and northeast of Taiwan, the polarity of subduction changes whereby the oceanic Philippine Sea plate is subducting beneath the Ryukyu arc system on the Eurasian plate. Continent-arc collision in Taiwan island is anomalous and may occur in a broad belt of deformation rather than along a well-defined plate boundary or subduction zone.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and sediment in the main stream of the Ca River basin,Vietnam: weathering process,solute-discharge relationships,and reservoir impact     

Phuong  Ho Thi  Okubo  Kenji  Azhar Uddin  Md. 《中国地球化学学报》2019,38(5):627-641

Acta Geochimica - In this study, we investigated the chemical composition of dissolved solids in the Ca River basin, North-Central Vietnam. Water samples were collected from August 2017 to July...  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Potential impacts of northeastern Eurasian snow cover on generation of dust storms in northwestern China during spring     

Yun Gon Lee  Chang-Hoi Ho  Jhoon Kim  Jinwon Kim 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):721-733

The effects of the northeastern Eurasian snow cover on the frequency of spring dust storms in northwestern China have been examined for the period 1979–2007. Averaged over all 43 stations in northwestern China, a statistically significant relationship has been found between dust-storm frequency (DSF) and Eurasian snow-water equivalent (SWE) during spring: mean DSF of 7.4 and 3.3 days for years of high- and low SWE, respectively. Further analyses reveal that positive SWE anomalies enhance the meridional gradients of the lower tropospheric temperatures and geopotential heights, thereby strengthening westerly jets and zonal wind shear over northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China, the regions of major dust sources. The anomalous atmospheric circulation corresponding to the Eurasian SWE anomalies either reinforces or weakens atmospheric baroclinicity and cyclogenesis, according to the sign of the anomaly, to affect the spring DSF. This study suggests that Eurasian SWE anomalies can be an influential factor of spring DSF in northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China.  相似文献   

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Chun Kit Ho  Ed Hawkins  Len Shaffrey  Fiona M. Underwood 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):917-935

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.  相似文献   

Galaxy activity in merging binary galaxy clusters     

Ho Seong Hwang †  Myung Gyoon Lee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,397(4):2111-2122

We present the results of a study of galaxy activity in two merging binary clusters (A168 and A1750) using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data supplemented with the data in the literature. We have investigated the merger histories of A168 and A1750 by combining the results from a two-body dynamical model and X-ray data. In A168, two subclusters appear to have passed each other and to be coming together from the recent maximum separation. In A1750, two major subclusters appear to have started interaction and to be coming together for the first time. We find an enhanced concentration of the galaxies showing star formation (SF) or active galactic nuclei (AGN) activity in the region between two subclusters in A168, which were possibly triggered by the cluster merger. In A1750, we do not find any galaxies with SF/AGN activity in the region between two subclusters, indicating that two major subclusters are in the early stage of merging.  相似文献   

On the peculiar momentum of baryons after reionization     

Carlos Hernández-Monteagudo  Shirley Ho 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(2):790-806

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Near real-time high-resolution airborne camera,AEROCam, for precision agriculture     

Xiaodong Zhang  Ho Jin Kim  Clinton Streeter  David A. Claypool  Ramesh Sivanpillai  Santhosh Seelan 《国际地球制图》2013,28(7):537-551

Precision agriculture often relies on high-resolution imagery to delineate the variability within a field. Airborne Environmental Research Observational Camera (AEROCam) was designed to meet the needs of agriculture producers, ranchers, and researchers, who require high-resolution imagery in a near real-time environment for rapid decision support. AEROCam was developed and operated through a unique collaboration between several departments at the University of North Dakota, including the Upper Midwest Aerospace Consortium (UMAC), the School of Engineering and Mines, and flight operations at the John D. Odegard School of Aerospace Sciences. AEROCam consists of a Redlake MS4100 area-scan multi-spectral digital camera that features a 1920 × 1080 CCD array (7.4-μm detector) with 8-bit quantization. When operated at ～2 km above ground level, multispectral images with four bands in the visible and near infrared have a ground sample distance of 1 m with a horizontal extent of just over 1.6 km. Depending on the applications, flying at different altitudes can adjust the spatial resolution from 0.25 to 2 m. Rigorous spectral and radiometric calibrations allow AEROCam to be used in a variety of applications, qualitative and quantitative. Equipped with an inertial measurement unit (IMU) system, the images acquired can be geo-referenced automatically and delivered to end users near real time through our Digital Northern Great Plains system (DNGP). The images are also available to zone mapping application for precision farming (ZoneMAP), an online decision support tool for creating management zones from remote sensing imagery and data from other sources. Operational since 2004, AEROCam has flown over 250 sorties and delivered over 150,000 images to the users in the Northern Great Plains region, resulting in numerous applications in precision agriculture and resource management.  相似文献   

A new Ordovician eurypterid (Arthropoda: Chelicerata) from southeast Turkey: Evidence for a cryptic Ordovician record of Eurypterida     

James C. Lamsdell  İzzet Hoşgör  Paul A. Selden 《Gondwana Research》2013,23(1):354-366

A new species of eurypterid, Paraeurypterus anatoliensis gen. et sp. nov., is described from the Upper Ordovician (Katian) ?ort Tepe Formation of southeast Turkey. The single specimen, preserving the carapace, mesosoma and fragments of appendages, appears morphologically intermediate between the eurypteroid families Dolichopteridae and Eurypteridae. P. anatoliensis retains the plesiomorphic conditions of crescentic eyes with enlarged palpebral lobes and a quadrate carapace with ornamentation consisting of small pustules but also displaying the derived characteristics of genal facets and a row of large acicular scales across the posterior of each tergite. Phylogenetic analysis incorporating each of the major eurypterine clades and all Eurypterina having a three-segmented genital operculum (the triploperculate condition) resolves eurypteroids to be an unnatural group, with Dolichopteridae and Eurypteridae forming part of a grade leading to diploperculate Eurypterina. P. anatoliensis is intermediate between the two eurypteroid families, as is ‘Eurypterus’ minor from the Pentland Hills of Scotland, which is shown to be a distinct genus and assigned to Pentlandopterus gen. nov. Using the phylogenetic topology to infer ghost ranges for each of the major eurypterid clades reveals that the majority of eurypterid superfamilies must have originated by the Katian, indicating a largely unsampled record of Ordovician eurypterids. The occurrence of poor dispersers such as Paraeurypterus in the Ordovician of Gondwana is puzzling, and it has been suggested that they dispersed to the continent during periods of sea level lowstand in the Sandbian and Hirnantian, however this does not explain the lack of Ordovician species in North America and Europe, given the well-sampled nature of these continents, and an alternative is proposed whereby eurypterids originated in Gondwana and radiated out to Laurentia and Baltica in the late Ordovician and early Silurian, thus explaining their sudden appearance in the European and North American rock record.  相似文献